BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2012
...ISAAC MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...POSES SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE THREAT TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 85.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST AND SOUTH OF
AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...6 TO 12 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
LATER TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WWWW
WTNT44 KNHC 271458
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2012
DATA FROM THE TAMPA AND KEY WEST DOPPLER RADARS...AND FROM AIR FORCE
RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF ISAAC HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS OCCASIONALLY APPEARED
IN THESE DATA...BUT IT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO PERSIST. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO AROUND 987-988 MB...BUT THIS HAS NOT
RESULTED IN ANY INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS. THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
OF 55 KT IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE RECON
WIND DATA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/12. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE 20-40 METER HEIGHT RISES AT THE 500 MB AND 400 MB LEVELS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S....WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISAAC HAS STRENGTHENED
SLIGHTLY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION IS
SUPPORTED BY THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH A SPREAD OF MORE THAN
500 N MI BETWEEN THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT.
THE FORECAST TRACK AT DAYS 3-5 IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.
THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO TO BE DUE TO THE
LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE WIND RADII...WHICH HAVE YET TO CONTRACT
INWARD...ALONG WITH THE PERIODIC ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
FROM THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION. UNTIL THE
DRY AIR MIXES OUT...EROSION OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL ISAAC APPROACHES THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AT THAT TIME...INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM
THE GULF COAST LAND MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH COULD ENABLE THE
STRENGTHENING PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODEL IV15.
BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
Monday, August 27, 2012
8am Monday Isaac Update
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac
Monday, August 27, 2012 at 8 AM EDT
(Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 25A)
Isaac is currently a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained
winds of 65 mph (56 kts), moving northwest at 14 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988
mb. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the storm center.
Certain coastal locations are under Hurricane Warning, Hurricane Watch, Tropical Storm Warning, and
Tropical Storm Watch as illustrated in the map below. The geographic extents of these watches and
warnings are detailed in the advisory text at the end of this report.
WTNT34 KNHC 271139
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012
...ISAAC GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST
AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST
* FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac #25A - Page 2
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA
DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST.
ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC
WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390
KM...FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...6 TO 12 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 2 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac #25A - Page 3
RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
WHERE ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL DIMINISH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
MORNING.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WWWW
WTNT44 KNHC 270859
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012
THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX BEFORE 06Z SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF ISAAC
HAD REFORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT THE
PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 990 MB. HOWEVER...NO STRONGER WINDS WERE
OBSERVED BY THE AIRCRAFT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CONTINUED LACK OF INNER CORE STRUCTURE...
THE LARGE CIRCULATION...AND SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR NEAR THE OUTFLOW
LAYER DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF ISSAC SHOULD RESULT IN
ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...STEADIER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CIRCULATION
CONSOLIDATES AND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM ISAAC. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE
TO OR A BIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT
48 HOURS.
RECENT AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12...AS ISAAC
IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS ISAAC MOVES
INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INDUCED
BY A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS
OR SO...AND THROUGH THAT TIME THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION. WHILE THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...
THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE AND NOW TAKE
ISAAC TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac #25A - Page 4
GFDL...AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN AND BRING
THE CYCLONE INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD BY ABOUT A DEGREE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND
AND LIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. BECAUSE OF
THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND.
BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND THE FACT THAT SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS
EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON
THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
GIVEN THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE
INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE GIVEN CONTINUING OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
Sunday, August 26, 2012
5pn Sunday Isaac Update
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
...CENTER OF ISAAC PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 82.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER
BEACH IS DISCONTINUED.
THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
THE HURRICANE WATCH IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUSIANA TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY IS
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST AND FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
* FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR
TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...NEAR KEY WEST...REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/H...AND VIRGINIA KEY REPORTED A WIND
GUST TO 66 MPH...106 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...6 TO 12 FT
* REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 7 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THOUGH TONIGHT.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
...CENTER OF ISAAC PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 82.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER
BEACH IS DISCONTINUED.
THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
THE HURRICANE WATCH IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUSIANA TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY IS
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST AND FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
* FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR
TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...NEAR KEY WEST...REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/H...AND VIRGINIA KEY REPORTED A WIND
GUST TO 66 MPH...106 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...6 TO 12 FT
* REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 7 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THOUGH TONIGHT.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
Sun 5am Isaac update
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
...ISAAC A LITTLE STRONGER...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
LATER TODAY...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 79.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...NOT INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO INDIAN
PASS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...NOT
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NORTH OF
BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH COAST OF CUBA THIS MORNING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 995
MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS...THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ANDROS ISLAND ON
SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* CRYSTAL RIVER THROUGH THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...4 TO 7 FT
* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...4 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER
INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
WWWW
WTNT44 KNHC 260900
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
WHILE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ISAAC REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. PEAK 850-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ADJUST TO AN
INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH IS THE VALUE FOR THIS ADVISORY. AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS ALSO DROPPED A LITTLE...
TO 995 MB. ISAAC STILL APPEARS TO BE BATTLING THE EFFECTS OF SOME
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...
AS SEEN IN UPPER-AIR DATA FROM MIAMI AND KEY WEST. ASIDE FROM
THIS...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE
VERY WARM...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SHOWS A LITTLE SLOWER RATE OF
STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...TRENDING TOWARD THE
LATEST CYCLE OF GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/16...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
AS THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST OF ISAAC RETREATS WESTWARD AND THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LIFTS NORTHWARD...ISAAC
WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...NO
LONGER SHOW ISAAC RECURVING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONE CAMP OF GUIDANCE...
INCLUDING THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THE SHORTWAVE
BYPASSES ISAAC COMPLETELY. THE ECMWF AND GFDL SHOW HAVE MORE OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND SHOW ISAAC TURNING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
EASTERN GULF COAST. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF...SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD TURN AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE
LOW...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ISAAC
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER.
GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 23.1N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 24.2N 80.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 25.5N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 26.9N 84.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 28.1N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 30.2N 88.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 32.0N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/0600Z 34.0N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
...ISAAC A LITTLE STRONGER...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
LATER TODAY...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 79.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...NOT INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO INDIAN
PASS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...NOT
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NORTH OF
BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH COAST OF CUBA THIS MORNING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 995
MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS...THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ANDROS ISLAND ON
SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* CRYSTAL RIVER THROUGH THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...4 TO 7 FT
* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...4 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER
INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
WWWW
WTNT44 KNHC 260900
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
WHILE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ISAAC REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. PEAK 850-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ADJUST TO AN
INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH IS THE VALUE FOR THIS ADVISORY. AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS ALSO DROPPED A LITTLE...
TO 995 MB. ISAAC STILL APPEARS TO BE BATTLING THE EFFECTS OF SOME
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...
AS SEEN IN UPPER-AIR DATA FROM MIAMI AND KEY WEST. ASIDE FROM
THIS...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE
VERY WARM...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SHOWS A LITTLE SLOWER RATE OF
STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...TRENDING TOWARD THE
LATEST CYCLE OF GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/16...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
AS THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST OF ISAAC RETREATS WESTWARD AND THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LIFTS NORTHWARD...ISAAC
WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...NO
LONGER SHOW ISAAC RECURVING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONE CAMP OF GUIDANCE...
INCLUDING THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THE SHORTWAVE
BYPASSES ISAAC COMPLETELY. THE ECMWF AND GFDL SHOW HAVE MORE OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND SHOW ISAAC TURNING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
EASTERN GULF COAST. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF...SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD TURN AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE
LOW...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ISAAC
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER.
GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 23.1N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 24.2N 80.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 25.5N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 26.9N 84.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 28.1N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 30.2N 88.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 32.0N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/0600Z 34.0N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
Saturday, August 25, 2012
5pm update Citrus under a TS Watch
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012
...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 76.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN
THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT
* FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT44 KNHC 252102
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012
THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...
WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS 50 N MI OR MORE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS
REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA NEAR 50 KT.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 997 MB IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND
CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/18. ISAAC IS CURRENTLY PART OF A
LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AND OCEAN AREAS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR ISAAC AND THIS CENTER
WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE STORM COULD MAKE A SHARPER TURN THAN FORECAST...AS THE UKMET IS
SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA
NEAR THE 36 HR POINT. THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK FREE OF OR
ABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96 HR. WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR
IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS PART
OF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WHILE THE CYCLONE
REACHES OPEN WATER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012
...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 76.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN
THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT
* FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT44 KNHC 252102
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012
THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...
WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS 50 N MI OR MORE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS
REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA NEAR 50 KT.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 997 MB IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND
CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/18. ISAAC IS CURRENTLY PART OF A
LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AND OCEAN AREAS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR ISAAC AND THIS CENTER
WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE STORM COULD MAKE A SHARPER TURN THAN FORECAST...AS THE UKMET IS
SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA
NEAR THE 36 HR POINT. THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK FREE OF OR
ABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96 HR. WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR
IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS PART
OF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WHILE THE CYCLONE
REACHES OPEN WATER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
Isaac 2pm update
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac
Saturday, August 25, 2012 at 2 PM EDT
(Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 18A)
Isaac is currently a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained
winds of 60 mph (52 kts), moving northwest at 17 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000
mb. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the storm center.
Certain coastal locations are under Hurricane Warning, Hurricane Watch, Tropical Storm Warning, and
Tropical Storm Watch as illustrated in the map below. The geographic extents of these watches and
warnings are detailed in the advisory text at the end of this report.
WTNT34 KNHC 251745
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012
...CENTER OF ISAAC NOW NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 75.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac #18A - Page 2
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER
EASTERN CUBA THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...
AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND ISAAC IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac #18A - Page 3
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...5 TO 7 FT
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WWWW
WTNT44 KNHC 251502
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012
ISAAC HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY ITS PASSAGE ACROSS HAITI. THE
LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOWED THAT THE CENTER PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 998 MB...AND THAT THE
STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 60-70 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THESE
WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS DISORGANIZED...WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE BANDS SOUTH OF
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac #18A - Page 4
HISPANIOLA AND LITTLE CONVECTION CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTER. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISAAC IS AT THE EASTERN END OF A LARGE AND
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...WHICH IS CREATING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS JOGGED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 315/15. IN
THE SHORT-TERM...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION...
COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ISAAC...SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS INDICATED BY THE TIGHTLYCLUSTERED
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN MORE
NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN
POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FINAL
LANDFALL POINT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL
IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 72-96 HR.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
LAND INTERACTION...SOME WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE CURRENT LACK OF
CONVECTION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE CENTER MOVES
AWAY FROM LAND...WOULD SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER 12 HR.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AFTER LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 20.1N 74.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 21.7N 76.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 23.3N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 24.7N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 25.9N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 28.5N 85.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 31.5N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 33.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
TS Isaac Update
8am Saturday 8/25/12
Summary:
· At 8am EDT Saturday, Tropical Storm Isaac was emerging from the coast of Haiti, located about 125 miles northwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, or approximately 587 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
· Isaac continues to move northwest around 14mph. A general northwest to west-northwest motion is expected through the next 3 days, followed by a turn to the north on Tuesday.
· Although computer models guidance is spread between a track up the Florida Peninsula and a more westward track towards Louisiana, most of the computer models are tightly clustered. These, along with the official NHC forecast, take Tropical Storm Isaac across eastern Cuba today and moving out into the Florida Straits Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
· Isaac is then forecast move over the Florida Keys late Sunday night, parallel Southwest Florida Monday, then turn towards the north on Tuesday ahead of an approaching trough, eventually making landfall Tuesday night somewhere in the Florida Panhandle, although the range of possibilities is still between Apalachee Bay and southeastern Louisiana.
· Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph. Although Isaac is feeling the effects of land interaction, strengthening is expected to occur once Isaac emerges from the eastern Cuba tonight.
· Given that Isaac will spend less time over land and stayed intact over Haiti, very warm water temperatures in the Florida Straits will promote strengthening and Isaac is expected to be a hurricane within the next 36 hours before reaching the Keys.
· There is a 50% chance that Isaac could remain a tropical storm, but every intensity model shows Isaac becoming a hurricane either in the Florida Straits or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
· Isaac remains a large storm, and tropical storm force winds now extend as far as 230 miles from the center.
· A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic, designated as invest area 97L, has changed little in organization. Additional development is still possible over the next few days as it moves west-northwest at 10-15mph, and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a medium (30%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 2 days.
· Initial computer models take 97L northwestward through the central Atlantic during the next 5 days while intensifying into a tropical storm. The next name on the 2012 storm list is Kirk.
· The remnants of Tropical Storm Joyce have a 10% chance of re-development within the next 2 days.
Florida outlook:
· Watches and Warnings Issued for Florida:
o Hurricane Warning – Entire Florida Keys; Florida West Coast from Bonita Beach southward.
o Hurricane Watch – Golden Beach to Ocean Reef
o Tropical Storm Warning – Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef
o Tropical Storm Watch – Jupiter Inlet north to Sebastian Inlet
· The Florida Keys, Southwest Florida, much of West Central Florida and all of the Florida Panhandle are within the 3-5 day cone of error. Remember that the cone does not necessarily forecast impacts.
· There is now a greater than 50% chance that much of South Florida, West Central Florida, the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend could receive tropical storm force winds within the next 5 days. Tampa currently has a 57% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds and Tallahassee has a 51% chance. Coastal areas of Southwest Florida and the Florida Panhandle now have 5-10% chance of seeing hurricane force winds within 5 days. The Keys are higher, around 16%.
· Tropical storm force winds could arrive as early as Sunday morning in the Keys and Miami-Dade counties, with winds arriving further north in southern Florida Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds could arrive in West Central Florida near Tampa overnight Sunday into Monday. Hurricane force winds could arrive in the Keys late Sunday night. Areas of the Florida Panhandle could see the arrival of tropical storm force winds Monday night through Tuesday.
· Heavy rainfall of 4-8 inches is possible over much of southern Florida. Heavier amounts as high as 10-15 is possible in the Florida Panhandle next week.
· Storm surge heights may reach 1-3 feet in Southeast Florida and the Florida Keys, with surges of 5-7 feet along the southwest coast of Florida. 5-8 feet of storm surge is also possible in Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast.
· Storms in the eastern Gulf are also prone to producing tornadoes. The Storm prediction Center has placed much of Florida in a slight risk for severe weather beginning Sunday and continuing through Tuesday.
More information on Tropical Storm Isaac and 97L can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Saturday afternoon.
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
State and FEMA aid- TS Debby
This report is from the FEMA Public Information Officer assigned to Citrus County for TS Debby.
Here
is a quick message packed with information and updates for your
county. I want to thank you for helping FEMA deliver disaster assistance
in your area. Your team, county, sheriff, even local media have been on point
in helping FEMA and State. As of close of
business yesterday, FEMA and State have provided more than $18.9 million
statewide to all eligible applicants who registered for FEMA assistance. FEMA
has responded to more than 14,000 requests for assistance and disaster related
recovery statewide. Out of the $18.9 million, $16,698,057.25 have gone
towards housing assistance and another $2,255,120.68 for other needs
assistance, which can cover if eligible personal property, medical, dental and
even funeral expenses as a result of the Tropical Storm Debby.
In Citrus, $127,233.37 have been obligated to individuals and
households affected by the storm in the county. Of this amount $111,964.30 have
gone towards housing and another $15,269.07 for other needs assistance.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
FEMA/STATE DRC is here
The FEMA and State of Florida Mobile Disaster Recovery Center is located in the Emergency Operations Center parking lot. Both agencies are here to help you if you suffered damage to your residence as a result of Tropical Storm Debby. It is unknown how long they will be in our county so if you need to speak with them, it's best to do it as soon as possible. Follow the signs on CR 491. Hours are 8am -6pm. The center will be closed on Sunday.
The Mobile Disaster Recovery Center is closing on 08-08-12 at 6:00pm. If you need to speak with FEMA in person, they will be at the EOC until 6:00pm tonight!
The Mobile Disaster Recovery Center is closing on 08-08-12 at 6:00pm. If you need to speak with FEMA in person, they will be at the EOC until 6:00pm tonight!
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